A new report by the Africa Finance Corporation has raised fresh concerns over Africa’s energy security, warning that the continent could face a fuel supply gap of up to 86 million tonnes by 2040 amid growing reliance on imports and global supply disruptions.

Presented in Nairobi, the report highlights Africa’s deep vulnerability to external shocks, noting that more than 70 per cent of its refined fuel is imported. The continent also spends an estimated $230 billion annually on essential imports, including fuel, food, fertiliser, plastics and steel.

According to the AFC, fuel demand is expected to rise steadily from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040—equivalent to nearly three large-scale refineries such as those operated by the Dangote Group.

Speaking at the report’s launch, AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions have exposed critical weaknesses in Africa’s fuel supply chains, particularly in relation to global maritime chokepoints.

She cited disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz—a key global oil transit route responsible for roughly a fifth of global fuel shipments—as a major risk factor. Recent instability in the Middle East has significantly affected fuel flows, leaving import-dependent regions, especially in East Africa, vulnerable to shortages.

Beyond fuel, the report also flags fertiliser supply as another critical pressure point. Despite holding about 80 per cent of the world’s phosphate reserves, Africa produces only around 20 per cent of global fertiliser output, exposing the region to supply shocks during global crises.

Babihuga-Nsanze described the situation as a “missed opportunity,” urging greater investment in local production to reduce dependency and strengthen resilience.

The report recommends the development of new refining hubs and improved efficiency of existing infrastructure to bridge the supply gap. It also highlights broader energy system inefficiencies, pointing to underutilised hydropower capacity in countries like Angola and climate-stressed energy systems in Zambia as examples of missed capacity.

With demand rising and global supply chains under pressure, the AFC warned that without urgent structural reforms and investment in domestic energy production, Africa risks prolonged exposure to fuel shortages, higher import costs, and broader economic instability.