Retail petrol prices across Nigeria could soon climb to between N980 and over N1,000 per litre following a fresh increase in gantry prices by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The adjustment, confirmed by industry sources, saw the refinery raise its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from N774 to N874 per litre, a move largely attributed to rising global crude oil prices and shifting market conditions.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said the development would inevitably push pump prices higher nationwide.
“Following the increase, retail prices will likely range between N980 and above N1,000 per litre depending on location and logistics,” he stated.
Global Oil Tensions Driving Price Surge
The hike comes amid heightened volatility in the global oil market, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the United States and Iran. Analysts warn that any prolonged disruption—especially around the strategic Strait of Hormuz—could further tighten supply and increase costs.
Crude oil prices have already surged above $80 per barrel, with projections from JPMorgan Chase suggesting prices could climb as high as $120 per barrel if disruptions persist.
Industry operators say the ripple effects are already being felt across Nigeria’s downstream sector, with several depot owners reportedly suspending petrol sales to reassess replacement costs.
Supply Chain Pressure, Rising Costs
Shipping activity through key global routes has dropped significantly due to security concerns, while insurance premiums for oil transit have surged—further increasing the cost of refined products.
Energy experts warn that for Nigeria, which still relies heavily on imported refined products despite domestic refining strides, such global shocks quickly translate into higher fuel prices, inflation, and increased transportation and food costs.
Dangote’s Broader Industrial Vision
Amid the pricing changes, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has outlined an ambitious expansion plan that goes beyond refining. The conglomerate is set to invest in electricity generation, steel production, and port infrastructure as part of a broader strategy to industrialise Africa and enhance energy security.
Dangote emphasised that stable electricity supply remains critical to economic growth, noting that Nigeria’s current power generation lags behind demand.
The refinery, with a current capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day, is expected to scale up production in the coming years, while also creating tens of thousands of jobs.
Market Outlook
Analysts say the latest price adjustment underscores Nigeria’s continued exposure to global oil market fluctuations, even as local refining capacity improves.
With crude prices trending upward and geopolitical risks intensifying, petrol prices may remain under pressure in the near term—raising concerns over affordability and economic stability for millions of Nigerians.
