Perched in the cool highlands of Plateau State lies the Jos Plateau, a hidden agricultural powerhouse and the heart of sub-Saharan Africa’s largest contiguous potato-producing area. The region’s unique temperate climate makes it ideal for year-round potato cultivation, supplying fresh produce to markets across Nigeria and extending into neighboring West African countries. Yet, despite its natural advantages and economic significance, the region’s full agricultural potential remains severely constrained by one persistent barrier: limited access to high-quality potato seed.

The Paradox of Low Yields in a High-Production Region

Nigeria plays a leading role in Africa’s potato production, cultivating over 320,000 hectares and yielding approximately 1.2 million tonnes of potatoes annually. On paper, these numbers may seem impressive. However, a deeper look reveals a troubling contradiction—average yields hover around just 3.8 tonnes per hectare, a figure that falls drastically short of the 20-tonne benchmark easily achievable by smallholder farmers under optimal conditions. The root cause? Poor access to certified, disease-free, high-yielding seed potatoes.

This shortfall is not just a technical issue; it is a systemic bottleneck with significant economic and social repercussions. Without reliable access to quality planting materials, farmers remain locked in a cycle of low productivity, rising costs, and limited market competitiveness.

Understanding the Seed System Challenge: Insights from the Field

To investigate this constraint and chart a path forward, the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, in collaboration with the Netherlands Enterprise Agency, commissioned a study carried out by the Sepia Foundation and Sahel Consulting. The research team conducted field surveys involving 97 potato farmers and held interviews with key actors across the potato value chain.

The findings painted a stark picture:

• Most farmers source seed from informal markets, selecting small tubers based solely on appearance. These tubers often carry viral infections, drastically reducing yields and increasing susceptibility to diseases.

• A staggering 86% of surveyed farmers identified late blight—a highly destructive disease affecting potatoes and tomatoes—as their primary production challenge. Despite widespread use of fungicides, poor application practices and substandard products limit their effectiveness.

• Nearly half of the farmers replace their seed stock only once every three years or more, unaware that seed degeneration—the gradual loss of yield potential due to viral buildup—is significantly compounding their productivity problems.

• There is a critical knowledge gap. Many farmers lack awareness of seed quality standards and proper agronomic practices. This lack of information undermines their ability to make informed investments and creates deep skepticism toward paying a premium for certified seed.

This situation creates a classic market failure: limited demand discourages serious investment by seed companies, both local and international. Meanwhile, poor-quality seed continues to circulate, trapping the system in a low-yield, low-trust equilibrium.

Breaking the Cycle: Four Viable Business Models for Seed System Reform

To break this cycle and build a commercially viable, scalable seed system, the study proposes four innovative business models tailored to Nigeria’s context:

1. Lead Local Enterprise with Imported Seed

In this model, a Nigerian agribusiness partners with an international seed company to import certified seed and multiply it locally. This approach ensures strict quality control and offers a reliable supply of high-grade seed. However, it requires significant investments in infrastructure, technical expertise, and long-term business planning.

2. Decentralized Multipliers with Imported Seed

Here, a local distributor imports certified seed and partners with a network of small-scale seed multipliers, who reproduce the seed once before selling it to farmers. This model builds on existing informal structures while introducing formal certification mechanisms, combining the best of both worlds: familiarity and quality assurance.

3. Local Multiplication Using Apical Rooted Cuttings

Rather than importing bulky seed tubers, this model leverages clean, in vitro plant cuttings—also known as apical rooted cuttings—produced using tissue culture techniques within Nigeria. Organizations like the International Potato Centre and Fruits & Veggies are already piloting this model, which has strong potential for domestic scalability and reduced phytosanitary risks.

4. True Potato Seed (TPS) and Local Multiplication

The most transformative and disruptive approach involves distributing true potato seeds (i.e., botanical seeds rather than tubers) to seed multipliers, who then produce and sell seed tubers to farmers. This technology, currently being adapted for the Nigerian context, offers the lowest logistics cost and minimal disease transmission risks. While still in early development, TPS could redefine the economics of seed systems in Nigeria.

Each of these models presents a competitive retail price point—ranging from ₦650 to ₦1,480 per kilogram (€0.36–€0.82)—that could become attractive to farmers when supported by education campaigns illustrating the return on investment from improved yields and disease resistance.

Beyond Business Models: Building an Enabling Environment

However, these business models cannot thrive in isolation. Nigeria must simultaneously build a supportive policy and market ecosystem. Several critical actions are required:

• Clear regulatory frameworks for seed importation, certification, and Plant Variety Protection (PVP) must be established to encourage innovation and safeguard intellectual property rights.

• Market enforcement mechanisms must be strengthened to prevent the sale of counterfeit or substandard seed, thus protecting both the farmer and the integrity of certified seed brands.

• Farmer training programs on seed degeneration, disease management, and good agricultural practices (GAPs) must be widely deployed to improve seed use efficiency and productivity outcomes.

• Ongoing research is vital to assess virus prevalence in existing seed stocks, track farmer preferences, and evaluate the economic benefits of transitioning to improved seed systems.

A Call to Action: Unlocking Transformational Impact

At Sahel Consulting, together with our local and international partners, we firmly believe that Nigeria’s potato sector is poised for transformational growth. With the right interventions, the country can triple its potato productivity, lower production costs, and establish a thriving domestic potato processing industry. This, in turn, would generate thousands of jobs, boost rural incomes, and enhance food security.

To bring this vision to life, we are collaborating with:

• Local seed entrepreneurs to pilot scalable distribution and multiplication models

• Dutch technology providers to bring world-class innovations into the Nigerian context

• Government agencies to improve regulatory clarity and enforcement

• Donor organizations to fund training, research, and market activation

We are already making progress—facilitating seed market pilots, delivering farmer training, and supporting policy engagement efforts to create lasting change.

Conclusion: A Role for Everyone in Nigeria’s Potato Revolution

Whether you are a development partner, private investor, agribusiness, government official, or research institution, there is an urgent and meaningful role for you to play in shaping the future of Nigeria’s potato industry. Together, we can build a resilient, commercially sustainable seed system—one that empowers smallholder farmers, spurs agribusiness innovation, and contributes to national development.

Now is the time to act. The potential is immense. The tools are available. All that remains is the collective will to unlock Nigeria’s potato potential.