Citigroup’s Head of Sub-Saharan Africa, Akin Dawodu, has cautioned that the recently announced U.S. tariffs on African goods could accelerate the continent’s shift toward other global economic partners. Speaking from Johannesburg, Dawodu emphasized that this shift may deepen Africa’s integration with non-Western trade blocs, especially as major economies like China and the European Union continue expanding their influence across the region.

 U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly revised trade policy, unveiled on Thursday, introduced up to 30% tariffs on goods from several African nations, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, and Algeria. This move has raised concerns among economists and policymakers, who fear it may worsen trade imbalances and erode U.S.-Africa economic engagement.

Africa Could Turn to Alternative Partners

According to Dawodu, the new U.S. tariffs could serve as a wake-up call for African governments to seek deeper trade partnerships with alternative powers.

“China is already Africa’s largest trading partner, and the European Union follows closely. This trend could accelerate,” he said, adding that the Middle East is also emerging as a key player, particularly in critical sectors like food security.

The  U.S. president’s aggressive trade stance, Dawodu argued, may prompt African nations to pivot further toward the East and the Global South, where bilateral trade agreements are less politically volatile and more predictable.

A Continent Rich in Resources but Underrepresented in U.S. Trade

Dawodu emphasized that Africa’s strategic importance stems from its abundance of natural resources. The continent holds approximately 60% of the world’s remaining arable land and a third of global mineral reserves — including key inputs for high-tech industries, such as cobalt and lithium.

Despite this, Africa remains largely underrepresented in U.S. trade flows.

“Currently, Africa accounts for less than 2% of U.S. trade. So, while the tariffs will affect specific sectors, Africa has other options for its commodities,” Dawodu noted. “These goods can be redirected to global markets that are more receptive.”

AfCFTA as the Key to Long-Term Trade Resilience

In terms of sustainable growth, Dawodu pointed to the urgent need for African nations to increase intra-continental commerce. He urged policymakers to resolve internal trade barriers that limit the continent’s economic potential.

“There are serious non-tariff obstacles like inconsistent legal systems, poor transportation infrastructure, and labor mobility restrictions. These must be addressed if Africa is to fully benefit from its own market,” he said.

Dawodu also underscored the transformative potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which aims to create a single market for goods and services across 54 African countries.

“If AfCFTA is properly implemented, Africa’s share of global exports could rise from the current 3.5% to 4.4% by 2043,” he projected.

Tariffs Seen as Disruptive but Not Devastating

While Dawodu acknowledged that Trump’s trade tariffs might cause short-term disruptions, he remained optimistic about the long-term trajectory of African economies. Citi’s outlook continues to hinge on favorable demographics and growing domestic demand.

“Africa’s growth story will ultimately be driven by its people and internal consumption. That’s a factor that — no pun intended — will trump tariffs,” he said confidently.

Afrieximbank: China-Africa Trade Cushioning U.S. Policy Impact

Supporting Dawodu’s views, the African Export-Import Bank (Afrieximbank) issued a report suggesting that the direct impact of Trump’s tariffs on African economies may be limited. The bank cited Africa’s rapidly expanding economic ties with China as a crucial buffer.

“Over the last two decades, African countries have increasingly relied on China for both imports and exports. This has significantly reduced the continent’s vulnerability to U.S. trade actions,” Afrieximbank said.

The bank’s analysis shows that China has now surpassed the U.S. as Africa’s top trading partner. From financing infrastructure to buying critical minerals and agricultural goods, China plays a dominant role in African trade flows.

Potential Spillover Risks from U.S.-China Tensions

However, Afrieximbank did raise concerns about the broader consequences of an extended U.S.-China trade conflict. A protracted slowdown in China’s economy, it warned, could deeply impact African nations whose exports are heavily reliant on Chinese demand.

“China remains the biggest buyer of Africa’s top exports — including Nigeria and Angola’s crude oil, Zambia’s copper, the DRC’s cobalt, and a wide range of agricultural products,” the bank explained.

A downturn in China’s growth would translate into lower demand and falling prices for these commodities, placing pressure on already fragile economies.

Ghana and Nigeria Targeted with Tariffs

Among the African countries hit by Trump’s new tariffs are Ghana and Nigeria — two of the continent’s leading economies. Both nations saw a 15% duty placed on select exports to the U.S., marking a significant escalation in Washington’s tougher trade posture toward Africa.

Trade experts warn that this could further marginalize the continent in American policy considerations, especially if African markets respond by strengthening their ties with nations perceived to be more reliable or less politically driven.

The Road Ahead: Shift or Opportunity?

Trump’s renewed tariff strategy comes at a time when many African countries are re-evaluating their global trade relationships. While the move poses challenges, it also presents an opportunity for the continent to assert greater autonomy in choosing its economic partners.

With the continued rise of China, the EU’s push for green partnerships, and growing Middle Eastern investments in African infrastructure and agriculture, the continent appears well-positioned to recalibrate its global economic footprint — with or without U.S. cooperation.

In the end, Dawodu’s message is clear: Africa’s economic future will be shaped not by external shocks, but by how effectively its leaders harness domestic strengths, regional cooperation, and strategic international partnerships.