January 4, 2021 – The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the world, and its effects will last. Business leaders should consider several factors as they prepare for the next normal.

2021 will be the year of transition, where individuals, businesses, and society can start to look forward to shaping their futures rather than just grinding through the present.

As consumer confidence returns, spending will follow, with “revenge shopping” sweeping through sectors as pent-up demand is unleashed. Leisure travel will bounce back faster than business travel, driven by the human desire to explore and enjoy as business travel will take longer to recover, with some companies and sectors resuming in-person sales and customer meetings as soon as possible.

The crisis has sparked a wave of innovation and launched a generation of entrepreneurs, with over 1.5 million new-business applications in the US in Q3 2020. This great acceleration in technology adoption will sustain, driving productivity gains and accelerating the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Consumer businesses will be forever altered by changes in shopping behavior, with at least two-thirds of consumers trying new kinds of shopping, as the COVID-19 pandemic revealed vulnerabilities in supply chains, prompting companies to rebalance and shift, with $4.5 trillion in global goods exports potentially shifting by 2025.

The Future of Work

Remote working has arrived ahead of schedule, with over 20% of the global workforce potentially working from home. Companies now face challenges in deciding the role of the office and creating culture and a sense of belonging.

The global economy will experience growth, driven by consumer spending and business investment but economic recovery will vary by region, with countries like China and Australia showing faster growth.

The pandemic may have triggered long-term structural changes in business travel and remote work. Businesses will prioritize risk management, diversifying supply chains and investing in resilience.

The pandemic will accelerate global shifts, including the growth of e-commerce and digital payments. Therefore, business leaders must navigate the next normal, making informed decisions about investment, talent, and technology.

The next normal will be different, requiring adaptability, resilience, and innovation from businesses and society.