May 29 marked the second anniversary of President Bola Tinubu’s administration. This milestone also brings to mind the political turmoil surrounding the June 12, 1993, presidential election—a defining moment in Nigeria’s democratic history. I recall vividly my encounter with Dahiru Mohammed Deba, then the Deputy Governor of Bauchi State, shortly after the election. I had traveled to Bauchi to cover the historic poll for The Nigerian Economist magazine, alongside two other journalists: Victor Ifijeh from Concord and Gbemiga Ogunleye from The Guardian.
The atmosphere in Bauchi was tense and intimidating. Known for its religious volatility and political conservatism, Bauchi was firmly controlled by the National Republican Convention (NRC), despite the Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) growing influence led by prominent figures such as the late Dr. Ibrahim Tahir, a Cambridge-educated politician. While I had interviewed several SDP supporters for balance, I needed to engage NRC leaders as well, which led me to Dahiru Deba.
A Hostile Encounter and Stark Political Realities
By the time I met Deba, unofficial results had shown Moshood Abiola, the SDP candidate, decisively leading over NRC’s Bashir Tofa. The mood among NRC supporters nationwide was one of mourning. Deba’s demeanor had shifted markedly; the warm politician I had initially met was replaced by a man surrounded by a hostile crowd, clearly agitated. He warned me that what he was about to say was directed at the Yoruba people—my ethnic group.
Deba launched into a fierce criticism of the Yoruba’s perceived arrogance in politics. While acknowledging their exceptional academic achievements, he questioned their ability to govern Nigeria effectively. He extolled the administrative legacies of northern leaders such as Uthman dan Fodio, Ahmadu Bello, and Tafawa Balewa, leaving me speechless for the first time in my journalistic career. His final declaration was a warning: the North had granted the Yoruba a chance to lead, but would not hesitate to reclaim power if Abiola failed.
Even Dr. Tahir, initially jubilant over Abiola’s victory, changed his tone after attending a Northern leaders’ meeting in Kaduna. Ultimately, the election reports I prepared for The Nigerian Economist were never published, underscoring the political sensitivities of the time.
Tinubu’s Presidency and Northern Opposition
Fast forward to 2025, and the echoes of that political tension remain loud. Many northern politicians remain uneasy with President Tinubu’s leadership style. His bold reforms are often viewed by some in the North as antagonistic to their interests. Nasir el-Rufai, a prominent northern opposition figure, openly declared his coalition’s goal to remove Tinubu from power in the 2027 elections.
Like Abiola, Tinubu is a formidable personality, one that some northern power brokers opposed from the start. However, unlike 1993, Tinubu’s mandate has not been cut short—2023 is not 1993. His Abeokuta “Emi L’okan” speech was a strategic and courageous move, signaling his readiness to confront political challenges head-on. This warning seemed to rein in the northern political “mafia” under then-President Buhari’s watch. Yet, since then, Nigeria’s situation has deteriorated economically and socially, and the initial optimism surrounding Tinubu’s government has waned—even among some former supporters like el-Rufai.
Northern Politics: A Complex Web
Northern political dynamics remain complex. The late Mallam Adamu Ciroma once explained to me that alliances between the North and other regions of Nigeria often falter—except when the North aligns with the Yoruba West. Such cooperation historically fostered political stability, as seen during the administrations of Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari. This history suggested that a similar partnership with Tinubu might bring stability.
However, today many of Buhari’s former allies have turned against Tinubu. It would be misguided for the Tinubu camp to believe they hold sway over mainstream northern politicians. Moreover, considering Tinubu’s performance in office, it’s uncertain whether the Yoruba West will stand firmly behind him in another political battle come 2027.
The Economic and Political Crossroads
Under Tinubu’s leadership, Nigeria’s economy faces significant challenges, yet his political momentum seems undeterred. A lesson from a story my father told resonates here—a man named Sakesake, known for his agile dancing due to his slender waist, won many competitions until overconfidence led him to push too far and break his waist, ending his winning streak in humiliation.
This story symbolizes the risks of arrogance and overreach in politics. Political power requires humility and vision—qualities Tinubu has yet to fully demonstrate.
The “Ides of March” and Political Reckoning
The “Ides of March,” famously marking Julius Caesar’s assassination by those fearing his power, serves as a potent metaphor. June 24, 1993, was Abiola’s own “Ides of March,” the day his presidency was unjustly cut short. Could Tinubu face a similar reckoning in 2027? Will political conspiracies coincide with worsening economic hardships to trigger upheaval?
Nigerian presidential politics pivot on three critical factors: personality, ethnicity, and religion. These elements favored Tinubu in 2023, but the question remains—will they hold sway in 2027?
Conclusion: A Cautionary Note for Tinubu
As former UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson remarked, “A week is a long time in politics.” In Northern Nigeria, the lessons of June 12 show that even a single day can change the political landscape drastically.
President Tinubu should be mindful of the potential pitfalls ahead. Political power is fragile and demands both humility and foresight. Without these, his leadership risks ending like Sakesake’s dance—an ignominious fall. The stakes are high not just for Tinubu, but for Nigeria’s future stability.
