The downstream petroleum sector could be bracing for a fresh wave of pain at the pump. Independent oil marketers have publicly warned that fuel prices are headed upward again, citing a recent operational pivot by the Dangote Oil & Gas complex as the trigger.

From Naira Sales to Dollar Realignments

According to multiple industry sources, Dangote’s refinery has scaled back sales of petrol denominated in naira, opting instead for dollar‑based transactions — a move seen by marketers as effectively foreshadowing higher costs across the supply chain. As one marketer put it: “When you shift your cost base to dollars, you can’t expect downstream prices to remain static.”

Reports suggest the refinery is responding to a mismatch: its domestic sales in naira have outstripped the value of crude allocations it receives in the same currency.

In effect, the refinery is rebalancing to protect its margins. (Comparable dynamics were observed when Dangote halted naira‑based sales earlier in 2025.)

Marketers Push for N75 Increase

Industry associations are already lobbying for an extra ₦75 per litre to cushion dealers who must absorb new logistics and foreign exchange costs.

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If approved, that would push pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel to as high as ₦950 and ₦1,090 per litre in certain states.

Sources say that such demands are in direct response to refiners insisting that marketers load via coastal logistics — an arrangement that adds roughly ₦75 per litre to the cost base.

Dangote officials, however, have publicly resisted absorbing that burden internally.

A Legacy of Price Volatility

This is not the first time the industry has faced such tremors. Earlier in 2025, marketers warned that Dangote’s temporary halt of naira sales would exert upward pressure on pump prices.

And in January, leaps in crude prices led to an increase in pump rates to between ₦1,050 and ₦1,150 per litre in many regions.

Even when Dangote slashed its ex‑depot price in mid‑2025 (from ₦880 to ₦840), many marketers resisted passing along the benefit — citing inventories bought at higher rates.

What This Means for Consumers

For ordinary Nigerians, the implications are stark. Rising petrol costs ripple through every facet of daily life — from transport fares and food prices to the cost of running generators.

In an economy already grappling with inflation, energy insecurity, and currency volatility, the ripple effects will be deeply felt.