As Nigeria marks the 26th anniversary of its Fourth Republic today, May 29, 2025, what should have been a milestone worthy of national celebration instead feels like a somber reminder of unfulfilled promises. Despite boasting over two decades of uninterrupted civil rule—longer than any democratic stretch in Nigeria’s post-independence history—the country remains trapped in a cycle of disappointment, political dysfunction, and economic misery. Citizens are left with little cause to celebrate beyond the mere passage of time.

Though Nigeria has successfully conducted seven general elections since 1999, power has only changed hands between parties once. Democratic structures remain intact on paper, but in reality, the nation’s democratic institutions are under siege. Hopes of inclusive governance, social justice, and development have been consistently dashed by a political elite more interested in self-preservation than in national progress.

From Civic Energy to Political Apathy

At the dawn of the Fourth Republic in 1999, the mood across Nigeria was one of optimism. Pro-democracy movements, civil society organizations, student unions, and labour groups had fought relentlessly against military rule. However, that civic energy has since dissipated, leaving a vacuum filled by a political class that thrives on impunity, manipulation, and corruption.

The retreat of citizens from public life has emboldened politicians to dominate political discourse unchecked. Civic disengagement has allowed the erosion of public institutions, the weakening of rule of law, and the near-collapse of political accountability.

A Nation in Crisis: Security, Poverty, and Hopelessness

Rather than shared prosperity, Nigerians have witnessed the proliferation of misery. Since 2018, the country has held the ignominious title of the world’s poverty capital, overtaking India. Life expectancy is low, infant mortality is high, and citizens are frequently caught in the crossfire of violence perpetrated by terrorists, bandits, and criminal gangs.

Despite trillions of naira allocated annually to defence, insecurity reigns supreme. Boko Haram remains a threat in the northeast, while banditry, kidnappings, and farmer-herder clashes spread chaos nationwide. Nigeria is reportedly home to 70% of the illegal firearms circulating in West Africa—an indictment of the government’s inability to protect its citizens.

Democratic Institutions Undermined

One of the clearest signs of Nigeria’s democratic dysfunction is the decay of its key institutions. The electoral process, once considered the foundation of democratic participation, has been reduced to a farce. Rampant vote-buying, intimidation, ballot snatching, and court-imposed candidates have made elections appear more theatrical than representative.

Data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) paints a bleak picture. Voter turnout has dropped drastically: from 57.54% in 2007 to a dismal 26.72% in 2023. Disillusioned voters now see little point in participating in elections they believe are pre-determined.

In a disturbing twist, the judiciary—once seen as a bulwark against electoral injustice—has come under suspicion. Allegations of “billionaire judges” and election outcomes being “procured” have further eroded public confidence in the courts.

Political Parties Without Ideology

Another serious flaw in Nigeria’s democracy is the ideological bankruptcy of its political parties. Rather than platforms for public service, most parties serve as vehicles for self-enrichment. Party-switching is rampant, with politicians crossing over to the ruling party to escape prosecution or secure political leverage.

The April 2025 mass defection in Delta State—where the sitting governor, his predecessor, and an entire political apparatus abandoned the opposition for the ruling APC—was a glaring example of this opportunism. Similar shifts are brewing in other states, threatening the health of Nigeria’s already weak multi-party system.

The resulting dominance of the ruling party has sparked fears of Nigeria slipping into a one-party state—an outcome that would stifle diversity and dissent in a nation as complex and heterogeneous as Nigeria.

A Legislature in the Executive’s Shadow

The doctrine of separation of powers is also under siege. In many states, governors exercise near-total control over their Houses of Assembly. At the federal level, lawmakers prioritize personal political ambitions over legislative duty. Instead of passing meaningful laws or checking executive overreach, the legislature often functions as a rubber stamp.

Elected representatives appear more interested in securing their re-election in 2027 than in addressing Nigeria’s mounting crises. With critical bills languishing in legislative limbo, corruption festers, and governance continues to deteriorate.

Crippled Economy and Power Woes

Nigeria’s economic failures are perhaps the most tangible evidence of poor governance. Despite vast oil wealth, the country continues to struggle with energy poverty, generating only 3,000 to 5,000 megawatts of electricity for a population of over 200 million. This lags far behind peer nations like South Africa and Egypt, which each generate over 58,000 megawatts.

The inflation rate stood at 23.7% in April 2025, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis. The naira has suffered multiple devaluations in recent years, eroding citizens’ purchasing power and driving up the cost of basic goods and services. Businesses continue to fold under the weight of insecurity, policy inconsistency, and inadequate infrastructure.

Missing Pillars: Federalism and Restructuring

At the heart of Nigeria’s governance problem lies the unresolved issue of federalism. Although Nigeria operates nominally as a federal republic, the reality is a suffocating unitary system. Resources are centralized, innovation is stifled, and the states remain economically dependent on federal allocations.

Calls for restructuring and true federalism have gained momentum in recent years, yet the political will to implement meaningful reform remains absent. President Bola Tinubu, once a vocal advocate of restructuring, has so far failed to initiate any significant steps in that direction, two years into his administration.

The Supreme Court’s recent push for local government financial autonomy—carried out through questionable methods—only adds to the legal and administrative confusion.

What Needs to Be Done

To salvage Nigeria’s democracy and prevent further descent into autocracy, urgent reforms are needed:

1. Restructuring and True Federalism: Decentralize power to the states, promote fiscal autonomy, and incentivize innovation, development, and competition among sub-national governments.

2. Electoral Reform: Clean up the electoral process, ensure INEC’s independence, and enforce stiff penalties for vote-buying and electoral malpractices.

3. Judicial Independence: Cleanse the judiciary of corrupt elements and ensure the courts are truly the last hope of the common man, not tools for the highest bidder.

4. Civic Reawakening: Civil society, unions, and the media must reclaim their roles as watchdogs. Citizens must re-engage with the democratic process and demand better from those in power.

5. Institution Building: Nigeria needs to prioritize strong institutions over strongmen. Anti-corruption agencies, the police, and regulatory bodies must be insulated from political interference.

6. Ideological Party Politics: Political parties must establish clear ideologies, train party members, and operate transparently. Party academies should be launched to promote leadership and policy education.

Conclusion: A Choice Between Renewal or Ruin

As Nigeria’s Fourth Republic enters its 27th year, the nation faces a critical juncture. Democracy in Nigeria is not guaranteed. It must be defended, nurtured, and reformed—or it risks total collapse under the weight of corruption, insecurity, and public apathy.

The journey forward demands courage from political leaders and renewed activism from citizens. Without urgent reforms, Nigeria risks becoming not only a failed democracy but a failed state. The time to act is now.