In a remarkable development that signals a major transformation in global oil trade dynamics, Nigeria has, for the first time, imported more crude oil from the United States than it exported to it. This historic reversal took place in February and March 2025, reflecting the evolving landscape of petroleum demand and refining capacity between both nations. According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), this change stems primarily from operational adjustments in Nigeria’s domestic refining sector and a drop in U.S. demand for foreign crude due to regional refinery maintenance.

How Nigeria’s Domestic Refining Capacity Is Reshaping Trade

The heart of this shift lies in Nigeria’s growing ability to refine its own crude, spearheaded by the Dangote Refinery, a colossal industrial project located near Lagos. The refinery, which began operations in January 2024, is already altering regional supply chains. It is on track to reach its maximum processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) before the end of 2025. This makes it the largest single-train refinery in the world, capable of handling more oil than many smaller national refineries combined.

Through this facility, Nigeria aims to end its dependence on imported refined petroleum products—a condition that has historically weakened its energy independence despite being a major oil-producing nation. By refining domestically, Nigeria not only saves on foreign exchange but also gains the potential to become a regional supplier of cleaner, more regulated fuels.

U.S.–Nigeria Oil Trade: What the Data Reveals

Data released by the U.S. EIA underscores the magnitude of this reversal:

• In February 2025, U.S. crude oil exports to Nigeria hit 111,000 barrels per day.

• By March 2025, this figure increased to 169,000 barrels per day, driven by rising demand from the Dangote Refinery.

• Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Nigeria dipped significantly: from 133,000 barrels per day in January, they dropped to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March.

This switch in trade flows—where the U.S. became a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria—is particularly significant considering that, for decades, Nigeria had been a key supplier of light sweet crude to the U.S., especially before the shale oil boom transformed America into a major producer.

The downturn in Nigerian exports to the U.S. was also influenced by temporary refinery maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway facility in New Jersey, one of the key importers of Nigerian crude. The maintenance period led to decreased U.S. demand for Nigerian oil. However, once the Bayway facility resumed full operations and the Dangote Refinery encountered unplanned downtime, Nigerian crude shipments to the U.S. partially resumed.

Expert Perspectives: What Analysts Say About the Trend

Industry observers view this development as an indicator of broader structural shifts. According to Giovanni Staunovo, an energy analyst at UBS, the reversal represents a confluence of temporary events and emerging long-term patterns.

“The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role in creating those unique flows earlier this year,” Staunovo noted. However, he emphasized that it remains uncertain whether this trend will continue over the long term. “Going forward, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist,” he added, suggesting that market adjustments and refinery operations will likely dictate future trade balances.

Dangote’s Oil Strategy: Buying U.S. Crude to Refine in Nigeria

At the West African Refined Fuel Conference held in Abuja, Aliko Dangote, President and CEO of Dangote Group, provided further insight into the forces behind Nigeria’s crude imports. He revealed that the Dangote Refinery currently sources 9 to 10 million barrels of crude oil per month, including shipments from the United States and other global suppliers.

In a striking irony, Dangote highlighted that some of the imported crude originated from Nigerian oil fields. International commodity traders had purchased Nigerian crude, marked it up, and resold it back to Nigeria. “We produce plenty of crude, but we still import over 120 million tonnes of refined products annually,” Dangote lamented. “That’s a $90 billion market opportunity captured by countries with surplus refining capacity, while we export jobs and import poverty.”

This paradox, where an oil-rich country depends on foreign refined fuel, underscores long-standing inefficiencies in Africa’s energy value chain. Dangote stressed that domestic refining must replace foreign reliance. He also criticized the inferior quality of some of the fuel exported to African markets, stating that it was time for regional governments to enforce stricter quality controls and promote local production.

Africa’s Energy Independence: The Call for Regional Reform

Throughout his address, Dangote called for greater regional collaboration in refining and distributing petroleum products. He argued that Africa must stop being a dumping ground for low-quality fuels and instead build capacity for energy self-sufficiency. With Nigeria now able to meet a substantial portion of its fuel needs domestically, the model could offer a roadmap for other African nations to follow.

He further advocated for policy reforms rooted in free-market economics, comparative advantage, and quality assurance. According to Dangote, these principles would help African countries optimize their energy value chains while minimizing economic leakage and social hardship caused by fuel shortages and substandard imports.

Short-Term Trend or Long-Term Reality?

Analysts like Eli Tesfaye from RJO Futures believe the reversal in U.S.–Nigeria oil trade may only reflect a short-term market fluctuation rather than a lasting change. Even so, it highlights the increasing importance of infrastructure in shaping trade routes and the global oil market.

As Nigeria continues to invest in local refining and expands its capacity, it could permanently reduce imports of refined fuel, restructure its energy sector, and influence international crude flows in new ways. The ripple effects are already visible, not only in bilateral trade patterns with countries like the United States but also in the strategic posture of African energy markets at large.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Nigeria and Global Oil Flows

Ultimately, this reversal in crude oil trade between Nigeria and the U.S. underscores the critical role that domestic infrastructure plays in global supply chains. With the Dangote Refinery ramping up operations, Nigeria is reclaiming control over its energy destiny—shifting from a crude-exporting, fuel-importing paradox to a more balanced, self-sustaining model.

Whether this pattern continues in the months and years ahead depends on multiple variables: global oil prices, geopolitical tensions, refining capacity across regions, and policy reforms within Nigeria and its trading partners.

Still, this milestone offers a clear message: countries that invest in infrastructure and policy innovation can shift their place in the global energy hierarchy. For Nigeria, the era of exporting crude only to import refined fuel may finally be coming to an end.