Western rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine often reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the power dynamics at play. Russia is not a regional power to be coerced into submission; it is the world’s most heavily armed nuclear state.

The failure to respect this geopolitical reality has led to strategic miscalculations, prolonging the war and exacerbating global instability. Western policymakers continue to assume that sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military aid to Kyiv will force Russia into retreat—a flawed premise that ignores the historical and strategic logic that drives Moscow’s actions.

Great Powers Do Not Submit to External Pressure

History has demonstrated that great powers dictate the terms of their engagements. The United States was never forced out of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Vietnam. It withdrew on its own terms, based on its own strategic interests.

Yet, when dealing with Russia, the West adopts a different standard, expecting Moscow to yield under external pressure. This assumption is dangerous and misguided. Russia, like the U.S. and other major global actors, does not capitulate under coercion. Ignoring this reality ensures that any attempts to end the war remain futile.

Why Sanctions and Military Aid Won’t Break Russia

Western strategies, including economic sanctions, military support for Ukraine, and diplomatic isolation, rest on the belief that Russia can be pressured into compliance. However, this overlooks several key realities:

1. Russia’s Strategic Mindset

   • Moscow prioritizes security concerns over economic incentives.
   • It views NATO’s expansion and Western involvement in Ukraine as existential threats.

2. Economic Adaptability

   • Despite heavy sanctions, Russia’s economy remains resilient.
   • The country has redirected trade towards China, India, and other non-Western economies.

3. Military and Industrial Strength

   • Russia’s military-industrial base remains operational.
   • The armed forces have continued operations without significant resource depletion.

4. Russian Society’s Endurance

   • Unlike the West, where economic downturns quickly lead to political instability, Russian citizens are historically accustomed to hardship.
   • Economic constraints alone will not break domestic support for the war.

Historical Parallels: Why Russia Won’t Retreat

Global superpowers do not abandon wars due to external pressure; they leave when they determine it is in their best interest.

• The U.S. withdrew from Vietnam only after years of strategic failure—not due to foreign pressure.
• The Afghanistan pullout was a calculated decision, not a forced retreat.
• Even in Iraq, withdrawal came after a strategic reassessment, not coercion from adversaries.

If the U.S., as the dominant Western military force, dictates its own exit strategies, why should Russia be treated differently?

Russia views itself as a superpower, operating with the same strategic autonomy as the U.S. Expecting it to yield to Western demands is not only naïve but counterproductive, as it reinforces the perception that the West seeks to weaken and humiliate Moscow rather than engage as equals.

Diplomacy as the Only Viable Path

If the West genuinely seeks to end the war, the only realistic path is diplomatic engagement based on mutual respect.

Russia does not need Western approval to act in its own interests. Any resolution ignoring Russian security concerns will be dismissed outright.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump, despite his controversial approach, understands this reality. Unlike many Western leaders who portray Russia as a rogue state, Trump recognizes the necessity of engaging with Moscow as a great power.

His realpolitik stance—often criticized for being too pragmatic—reflects a fundamental truth:

Wars between superpowers do not end through ideological posturing. They end through pragmatic negotiations.

The Future of the Ukraine War

The longer the West refuses to acknowledge Russia’s strategic position, the longer the war will continue. The alternative is clear:

• Recognize Russia’s geopolitical weight.
• Abandon counterproductive ultimatums.
• Pursue a settlement that respects the core interests of all parties involved.

History proves that disregarding the influence of a global power only prolongs suffering. The Ukraine war will not end through forced ultimatums—it will end when realistic diplomacy takes center stage.