Nigeria’s battle against stubborn price pressures showed a major breakthrough in October 2025, as new data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that headline inflation dropped to 16.05%, down from 18.02% in September.
The announcement, made on Monday, marks the country’s lowest inflation reading since 2017, signalling a potential turning point for an economy that has endured persistent cost surges over the past few years.
According to the NBS’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) update, October’s figure represents a dramatic slowdown when compared to the same period last year.
Inflation now sits 17.82 percentage points lower than the 33.88% recorded in October 2024—one of the steepest annual declines in recent memory.
A Meaningful Month-to-Month Improvement
The easing is even more notable when viewed alongside recent monthly trends.
* August 2025 inflation: 20.12%
* September 2025: 18.02%
* October 2025: 16.05%
This nearly 2-percentage-point drop* between September and October adds to a growing pattern of moderation that economists say could offer much-needed breathing room to households and businesses grappling with high living costs.
What’s Driving the Decline?
The statistics agency attributes the cooling inflation to:
* Better food supply, particularly from the harvest season
* Improved exchange-rate stability
* Tighter monetary policy and updated CPI base-year adjustments
Together, these factors have started to ease the pressure on commodity prices nationwide.
Relief—But Still Far from Target
Despite October’s encouraging numbers, inflation remains well above the government’s ambition of returning to single-digit rates.
Transport fares, electricity costs, housing expenses, and energy prices continue to challenge families, many of whom are yet to feel the effect of the recent statistical improvements at the market level.
Economists Warn Against Complacency
Analysts say the latest figures are promising but caution that the trend must be supported by discipline in fiscal and monetary management.
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They note that while 2024’s unusually high inflation provides a favourable base effect, sustaining the decline into 2026 will require careful policy coordination.
Potential threats include:
* Supply chain disruptions
* Currency volatility
* Unexpected energy price hikes
However, if current conditions hold—helped by strong harvest output and stable macroeconomic policy—Nigeria may finally be charting a path toward a more predictable inflation environment.
