The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and its ideological core, the Kwankwasiyya movement, are currently navigating a turbulent political period, particularly in their stronghold of Kano State. A cascade of high-profile defections, including elected officials who rode the party’s wave in the 2023 general elections, has plunged the party into a deep crisis and raised serious doubts about its viability ahead of the 2027 elections.

At the center of this storm is the party’s national leader and 2023 presidential flagbearer, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. Once a dominant force in Kano politics, Kwankwaso now stands at a political crossroads, as defections from his camp continue to shake the party’s foundation and question its relevance in Nigeria’s fast-shifting political landscape.

A Party Losing Ground

The NNPP emerged as a formidable force in the 2023 elections, securing Kano State through Kwankwaso’s influence and populist appeal. Although he only clinched victory in Kano at the presidential level, placing fourth nationwide, his party made significant inroads in the state, winning several legislative seats. However, its impact outside Northern Nigeria remains marginal, with the party nearly absent in Southern states.

In recent months, that political momentum has visibly faltered. Just last week, two members of the House of Representatives, Kabiru Usman (Rano/Bunkure/Kibiya) and Abdullahi Sani (Karaye/Rogo), both elected on NNPP’s platform, officially defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Speaker of the House, Tajudeen Abbas, read their defection letters during plenary, citing internal party crises as the trigger.

But these two lawmakers are far from the only ones jumping ship. Other significant defections include:

• Former Reps members Badamasi Ayuba (Danbatta/Makoda) and Sha’aban Sharada (Kano Municipal)

• Ex-state assembly member Zubairu Hamza Masu

• Former commissioners Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas

• Kano South Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila

• Former Secretary to the Kano State Government, Baffa Bichi

• Jigawa’s only NNPP Rep, Yusuf Galambi

Most of these defectors had deep roots in the Kwankwasiyya movement, once fiercely loyal to Kwankwaso but now citing internal injustice and power imbalances as reasons for their departure. The movement, originally built on populist ideals and youth-driven support, is now bleeding leadership and losing its firm grip on Kano politics.

APC’s Strategic Gains

Political analysts believe the APC’s aggressive recruitment of NNPP leaders is part of a broader strategy to reclaim Kano in 2027. The ruling party, embarrassed by its defeat in the state during the last elections, is now pulling out all stops to weaken its opposition.

In recent weeks, APC National Chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje — Kwankwaso’s political rival and former deputy — has openly boasted about the party’s readiness to win Kano in 2027, pointing to the defections as proof of its growing strength. Ganduje’s courtship of former NNPP chieftains appears deliberate and targeted, with insiders suggesting the defections are coordinated attempts to dismantle Kwankwaso’s influence brick by brick.

This pattern of political poaching has thrown the NNPP into survival mode. With over one million votes up for grabs in Kano alone, the stakes could not be higher.

What Lies Ahead for Kwankwaso?

The burning question on everyone’s mind is whether Rabiu Kwankwaso himself will stay with the NNPP or follow his former allies into the APC — or possibly form a new alliance altogether. Speculation is rife that he may consider joining forces with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of 2027, potentially as a vice-presidential candidate. Recent photos of Kwankwaso with Tinubu and Ganduje have only fueled these rumors.

However, insiders suggest Kwankwaso remains undecided. According to close sources, he is carefully weighing his options, including the possibility of reviving NNPP from within or aligning with another political bloc. Despite the defections, grassroots loyalty remains strong in some areas, as evidenced by the backlash from constituents who rejected Senator Sumaila’s move to the APC. Several community leaders have publicly disowned the defectors, claiming they acted without grassroots consent.

“It’s not what it looks like,” said a party insider. “Kwankwaso is still the leader in Kano. Most of these defectors had no grassroots backing — they won their seats because of Kwankwaso and Kwankwasiyya. The people on the ground still support him.”

Official Position: NNPP Denies Kwankwaso’s Defection

Ladipo Johnson, the NNPP’s National Publicity Secretary, firmly denied rumors of Kwankwaso’s planned defection. In an interview, Johnson insisted the former governor remained focused on building the party into a formidable opposition and had no intention of joining the APC or collaborating with the Tinubu administration.

“It is not true that Kwankwaso is joining the APC. All the stories are sponsored by the APC and Ganduje. They know that even if Kwankwaso joins the APC, he is more important than them,” Johnson said. “He is working hard to reposition the party for 2027 and consulting with other leaders on how best to rescue the country.”

Nevertheless, the reality on the ground suggests that time is running out for the NNPP to re-strategize, rebuild its political machinery, and fill the leadership void left by defectors.

Political Advice: Avoid APC, Consider Broader Opposition Coalition

Temitope Musowo, a respected political analyst, believes that joining APC would be a miscalculation for Kwankwaso, especially given the acrimonious history between him and Ganduje.

“If he joins the APC, will he be subordinate to Ganduje? That’s a big ask. His best move is to consolidate power in Kano and explore alliances with opposition coalitions,” Musowo said. “The APC wants Kano at all costs. This is a battle of strategy now.”

Musowo advised Kwankwaso to consider joining the proposed coalition spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and others like Peter Obi and Nasir El-Rufai. Yet, that path also comes with complications.

Kwankwaso’s Mistrust of Atiku’s Coalition

According to sources close to Kwankwaso, the former Kano governor remains skeptical about collaborating with Atiku Abubakar and other key figures in the proposed opposition alliance. His past political dealings with Atiku reportedly left a sour taste, and he now questions the integrity and motives of those pushing for a new coalition.

“Kwankwaso doesn’t trust Atiku or El-Rufai. Their past association didn’t end well, and he’s wary of making the same mistake,” a source revealed.

Thus, the dilemma intensifies. Should he try to rebuild the NNPP and risk going it alone in 2027? Should he return to the APC and reconcile with old enemies like Ganduje? Or should he gamble on a new alliance and risk being sidelined once again?

Final Word: A Political Crossroads

Kabiru Sufi, a political analyst and lecturer at Skyline University in Kano, captured the complexity of Kwankwaso’s situation best.

“Whether he stays with NNPP or defects, both paths come with heavy consequences,” Sufi said. “Rebuilding the party means he must fill leadership gaps in regions where he’s lost support. But defecting to APC or another party could create new enemies and force him into uneasy alliances.”

Kano remains the jewel in the crown of Northern politics — a state too strategic for any presidential contender to ignore. Whether Kwankwaso chooses to defend it from within NNPP or finds a new path will likely determine not only his political future but also the direction of the 2027 general elections.