In a political landscape marked by economic challenges and shifting alliances, former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai has made a striking assertion: President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027 is improbable. El-Rufai‘s comments have ignited discussions across Nigeria’s political spectrum, highlighting the complexities of governance, party loyalty, and regional dynamics.
El-Rufai’s Prognosis on Tinubu’s Political Future
El-Rufai, a prominent figure in Nigerian politics, recently expressed skepticism about President Tinubu’s chances of securing a second term. He argued that the prevailing economic hardships and political discontent make it unlikely for Tinubu to garner sufficient support for re-election. El-Rufai stated, “Anybody that thinks it is possible for President Bola Tinubu to get re-elected is living in another country, not Nigeria. It is impossible for Bola Tinubu to get re-elected. I don’t see a pathway for him, no matter how disorganized the opposition is. Who will vote for him? But that’s my own opinion.”
Economic Reforms and Public Sentiment
Since assuming office, President Tinubu has implemented significant economic reforms aimed at revitalizing Nigeria’s economy. Key among these reforms is the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalization of the exchange rate. While these measures have been lauded by international financial institutions for promoting fiscal responsibility, they have also led to increased living costs, sparking public discontent.
The immediate aftermath of these reforms saw a surge in fuel prices, leading to higher transportation costs and a spike in inflation. The devaluation of the naira further compounded economic challenges, eroding the purchasing power of citizens and leading to widespread hardship. Despite these challenges, the government maintains that these reforms are essential for long-term economic stability and growth.
APC’s Endorsement of Tinubu for 2027
Contrary to El-Rufai’s predictions, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has officially endorsed President Tinubu as its sole candidate for the 2027 presidential election. At a summit in Abuja marking two years of Tinubu’s presidency, the party’s National Chairman, Abdullahi Ganduje, affirmed the endorsement, stating, “On behalf of the National Working Committee, I hereby affirm the various endorsements and declare President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as sole presidential candidate of APC.”
The APC praised Tinubu’s economic reforms, asserting that they have revitalized Nigeria’s economy. The party’s leadership expressed confidence in Tinubu’s ability to lead the nation through its current challenges and into a period of sustained growth and development.
Regional Dynamics and Political Alliances
El-Rufai’s comments have also brought to light the intricate dynamics of regional politics in Nigeria. He has emphasized the need for alliances and coalitions across political divides to address the nation’s challenges. During a condolence visit to the family of the late elder statesman Edwin Clark, El-Rufai highlighted the historical alliance between the North and the South-South, urging a return to such partnerships to “rescue” Nigeria.
Furthermore, El-Rufai has been actively engaging with opposition figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, to discuss the future of Nigeria’s democracy and the need for opposition parties to unite to defeat the APC in 2027.
Defection to the Social Democratic Party
In a significant political move, El-Rufai announced his defection from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), citing irreconcilable differences with the APC leadership. He expressed disappointment in the ruling party, stating that over the past two years, the party had strayed from its progressive principles. El-Rufai vowed to mobilize opposition figures towards unseating President Tinubu in the 2027 election.
The presidency and the APC dismissed El-Rufai’s move, accusing him of being driven by “an inordinate ambition that is destined to fail.” They downplayed the potential impact of his defection on Tinubu’s re-election prospects.
Northern Leaders’ Divergent Views
El-Rufai’s stance has found resonance among some northern leaders who express dissatisfaction with the current administration. The spokesman for the Northern Elders Forum, Abdulaziz Sulaiman, stated that the North made a mistake in voting Tinubu to the presidency in 2023 and that it was unlikely they would repeat the same error in 2027.
However, other northern leaders, including APC National Chairman Ganduje, have urged the North to wait until 2031 for the presidency, emphasizing the importance of respecting the North-South zoning agreement.
Conclusion
The political landscape in Nigeria is poised for significant shifts as the 2027 presidential election approaches. El-Rufai’s bold predictions and subsequent defection to the SDP have stirred political debates and highlighted underlying tensions within the ruling party. While the APC maintains confidence in President Tinubu’s leadership and re-election prospects, the evolving alliances and regional dynamics suggest a complex and competitive electoral process ahead.
As Nigeria navigates its economic challenges and political realignments, the electorate’s response to these developments will ultimately shape the nation’s future leadership and policy direction.
