Nigeria may soon witness a further decline in petrol prices at the pump, possibly reaching around ₦800 per liter in the coming weeks or months. Industry experts and downstream marketers attribute this potential price shift to two key developments: the global decline in crude oil prices and the reinstatement of the naira-for-crude supply agreement that supports local refineries.

On Wednesday, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦835 per liter. This marks the second reduction within a week, underscoring the refinery’s intent to drive down fuel prices nationwide.

Dangote Leads the Price Reduction Initiative

The latest ex-depot price of ₦835 per liter reflects a ₦30 drop from the previous ₦865, which was implemented just six days earlier. In total, this represents a ₦45 reduction from the ₦880 per liter rate recorded the previous Wednesday. According to official documents and pricing data obtained from petroleumprice.ng, the refinery has now executed three downward price revisions in the last six weeks.

In a statement signed by Dangote Group’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, the company affirmed that the price slash aims to ensure petrol remains affordable for Nigerians. He confirmed that the new price includes levies and fees charged by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The revised pricing schedule now pegs PMS at ₦835 per liter from the gantry, inclusive of statutory fees. Coastal distribution remains suspended. Meanwhile, diesel is priced at $608 with an additional $70 surcharge, payable in naira at ₦1,650 per dollar or in foreign currency. Jet fuel will be sold at $664.75, with additional charges of $42 at the gantry and $22 for coastal loading. Cooking gas prices at both gantry and coastal points are currently on hold.

Partners to Sell Petrol at ₦890–₦920 Across Regions

According to Chiejina, Dangote’s major retail partners—including MRS, Ardova (AP), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil—will distribute petrol between ₦890 and ₦920 per liter across various regions. In Lagos, the product will now retail at ₦890 per liter, down from ₦920. In the South-west, the price is reduced to ₦900, previously ₦930. North-West and North-Central states will see prices drop to ₦910, while regions such as the South-East, South-South, and North-East will experience a revised rate of ₦920 per liter, down from ₦950.

Chiejina expressed optimism that the downward trend in fuel prices would relieve consumers and stimulate economic activity. He also emphasized the refinery’s commitment to consistent price reviews aimed at easing the financial burden on Nigerians.

“Since February, we’ve reduced prices multiple times, including a ₦125 reduction across products earlier this year,” Chiejina noted. “This latest cut is part of our continuous efforts to stabilize fuel supply, support local demand, and contribute to Nigeria’s foreign reserve buildup through exports.”

He also called on marketers and distributors to maintain supply chains through Dangote Refinery to ensure the reduced prices reach all corners of the country.

Imports Drop as Naira-for-Crude Deal Regains Momentum

This price shift aligns with broader changes in the downstream sector, particularly with the return of the government-backed naira-for-crude arrangement. After a temporary suspension, the Ministry of Finance confirmed last week that the deal has resumed fully. This development followed a meeting between Finance Minister Wale Edun and Dangote Refinery officials, during which the long-term implementation of the initiative was reaffirmed.

The ministry stated that the policy aims to minimize Nigeria’s reliance on foreign exchange for refined product purchases while simultaneously enhancing energy security by supporting domestic refining.

While the Dangote refinery pushes prices downward, imported fuel costs are also easing. On Tuesday, the landing cost of imported petrol fell to ₦853 per liter, down from ₦856.75 the previous Monday. According to data from the Nigerian Ports Authority and the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, six vessels delivered 117,000 metric tonnes (about 156.9 million liters) of petrol between April 8 and April 16 through Tin Can Island Port and Calabar Port.

Terminal data further shows that the on-the-spot sale price at the NPSC-NOJ terminal dropped to ₦853.12 per liter, while the 30-day average decreased to ₦844.84.

Analysts Predict Even Lower Pump Prices if Oil Falls Further

Oil marketers say that if global crude prices dip closer to $50 per barrel and reliance on foreign exchange continues to fall, then fuel prices could slide further—potentially to as low as ₦700 per litre.

Global benchmark Brent crude was trading around $65 per barrel on Wednesday. However, if it approaches $50, the cumulative impact on the local market could be substantial.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, said in a phone interview that the renewed naira-for-crude policy directly influences the ongoing price reductions.

He explained, “With crude prices falling and the government now supplying Dangote with crude in exchange for naira, the reliance on forex has reduced significantly. As a result, we expect petrol prices to continue to fall, possibly to between ₦650 and ₦700 per liter if crude hits $50.”

However, Ukadike also expressed concern that independent marketers may incur losses due to the sudden price changes, especially those holding inventory purchased at higher costs.

“The exchange rate impact has been discounted due to the government’s support, so Dangote cannot continue selling at previous rates. Marketers will have to absorb the losses or adjust quickly,” he added.

Competition Heats Up Between Refiners and Importers

Oil and gas analyst Olatide Jeremiah also weighed in, highlighting the intense market competition triggered by Dangote’s price reduction.

He remarked, “If the naira-for-crude policy hadn’t been temporarily halted, we would’ve seen petrol prices drop to ₦700 per litre much earlier. Today’s decline to ₦830 has forced a price war between Dangote and independent importers.”

According to Jeremiah, many importers are now concerned about their market position, as their current petrol stocks—brought in at higher landing costs of around ₦860 per liter—are now priced out of competitiveness. This pressure could trigger more aggressive pricing strategies and continued reductions in retail prices.

“Both the Dangote refinery and the importers are competing for market share. While that’s a business battle for them, it’s a win for Nigerian consumers, who should expect continued relief at the pump,” he said.

He concluded that the combination of lower global oil prices and local refining capacity supported by naira transactions presents a rare double benefit for Nigeria’s energy sector and broader economy.