“YOMI AYELESO reports in this piece on the stake in the poll, especially as relates to the political sagacity of leading gladiators, as well as the implications of the contest on July 18, 2022 Osun governorship poll and the 2023 general election.” The countdown to the June 18 governorship election in Ekiti State is rapidly approaching.

In addition to giving the people of Ekiti State the opportunity to choose a new governor to succeed Dr. Kayode Fayemi later in the year, the June 18 governorship election will also discuss the merits and demerits of certain powerful individuals in the state and set the precedent for upcoming national elections. Four people have been heavily involved in Ekiti State politics every election year since 1999, either directly or indirectly. These political figures continue to be significant and influential in state governance. They are the current governor, Fayemi, Adeniyi Adebayo, Segun Oni, and Ayodele Fayose, the former governor.

It’s interesting to note that the quartet will compete to maintain their dominance by overtly or surreptitiously succeeding Fayemi. The incumbent minister of commerce, investment, and industry, Adebayo, along with Fayemi, are doing all within their power to install Biodun Oyebanji, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

However, given the amount of work he is putting into the current campaigns, Fayose, who played a key role in the rise of former PDP chairman and candidate Bisi Kolawole, is committed to seeing the opposition party through to victory.

Oni, who served just one term from 2007 to 2010 before being removed by a court, is running for a second term in office this time around on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which election observers have dubbed the Third Force.

As the head of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) and an APC presidential candidate, Fayemi would use the election to demonstrate his political prowess both domestically and nationally. The governor’s decision to install a successor in order to maintain and consolidate policies and programs in the state was crucial to Oyebanji’s rise to prominence as the party’s standard-bearer. However, analysts argue that it goes beyond maintaining continuity and instead focuses on advancing his political interests and structures after leaving government.

Undoubtedly, former Governor Fayose views the poll as a crucial exercise for a variety of reasons. Fayose, who was unsuccessful in his attempt to install a successor in 2018, will do everything in his power to influence the votes in Kolawole’s favor. Thus, the election will determine the course of the loud politician’s political career. The outcome will determine the PDP leader’s standing and power inside the state’s political establishment. Political observers predict that Fayose may find himself in a challenging political position in the state as a result of his candidates losing the governorship twice in a row.

The results of the poll also affect Oni, a different previous governor. The result will define his quest to rule the state once more, especially given his advanced age. The engineer’s statements made during electioneering make it evident that he is keen to establish his dominance in the Ekiti political arena. He would undoubtedly rise to prominence in national politics if he is successful in unseating the APC and the PDP.

Despite the absence of overt political party campaigns or events, candidates are coming up with creative ways to connect with the public and other state stakeholders. Numerous problems have surfaced during the campaigns, among them the welfare of employees and retirees, security, the push for investment and economic growth, and social programs.

In the political milieu, debate about money and its influence on election day has also been more prevalent. Given the extreme poverty sweeping the state, many political observers believe that the “see and buy” phenomenon—the collecting of money in exchange for a vote—may determine the outcome of the election. A number of parties, including some candidates, have already launched campaigns opposing this act and urging voters to hold onto their mandates.

The influence of civil officials is another likely decisive factor in the election. In Ekiti, they constitute more than 50 percent of the voting population, which means they can select who becomes the next governor. Considering previous elections and the roles that workers have played in either accepting or rejecting parties, on June 18 they will hold the upper hand.

In a similar vein, the result of the APC’s presidential primary also matters in this election. If the candidates are prepared to go past their probable reservations following the presidential convention, the attention and impact of the people in Abuja will be apparent in the governorship contest. Given the current internal strife within the APC, Abuja may lose its importance if high-level reconciliation efforts don’t start right once.

The election will also serve as a prelude to an analogous poll in Osun State on July 16. Despite the fact that every election is unique, commentators think the results of the Ekiti poll will probably have an impact on public opinion going into the Osun election. The June 18 poll will provide insight into the political landscape for the upcoming general election in February, as candidates begin to emerge.

The absence of a single person who may be considered to be in charge is a notable distinction in the state’s politics. Since each leader’s sphere of influence is restricted to his own constituency, there is typically a synergy among them to establish alliances that benefit all parties. Certain realignments and alliances have survived in multiple locations, whereas others fell apart nearly immediately.

The Tinubu factor

The outcome of the most recent APC presidential primary, which was won by Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, could influence the dynamics and outcomes of the Ekiti election. In addition to his win, governor Fayemi’s shocking decision to forfeit his presidential bid in favor of Tinubu, which surprised even his fans, has eventually improved the chances of the ruling party. Before now, members of the pro-Tinubu group South-West Agenda 2023 (SWAGA) in the state stated their displeasure with developments in the state chapter of the APC and had pitched tent with the opposition parties especially the SDP and the ADC candidates. Because of the complexity and intrigues of the June 7 primary, many pundits and supporters of Tinubu believed he had a backup plan in case things did not work out as planned. This idea became more well-known in the lead-up to the Ekiti election because of the former Lagos governor’s power, resources, and influence. There were rumors that Fayemi’s intention to drop out of the presidential contest was part of his strategy in advance of the election on Saturday, which will choose his successor. Therefore, experts said it was not surprising that Tinubu, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, the national chairman of the APC, and other prominent members of the party attended the massive gathering in Ado-Ekiti on Tuesday in order to strengthen the party’s base of support ahead of the poll on Saturday. Fayemi took Oyebanji, the candidate, to Tinubu last Sunday, as his fans and party members had been expecting for months. He claims that throughout their meetings, they talked about how the APC will win on Saturday.

Nevertheless, the question of security has come up in light of recent occurrences. Blatant acts of political intolerance has reached terrifying dimensions with stakeholders wondering the genuine motive of those behind the instances of political violence. However, in order to avert a catastrophe, the authorities have pledged to deploy a large number of security officers.

Stakeholder dialogue

The Ekiti State Council of Elders declared that the people would not tolerate complaints made after the next governor took office and that he or she must comprehend the problems facing the state and propose practical solutions. The council secretary, Niyi Ajibulu, stated that the candidates’ platforms and agendas ought to enhance and contribute to the state’s socioeconomic development. “We want someone who knows what he is coming to meet on ground,” he said. We anticipate that the incoming governor will be well-informed about the issues he will be facing, so when he arrives, he won’t be whining about poor circumstances—because, in actuality, bad circumstances have existed. Whoever is running for governor ought to make sure that his proposals are realistic in order to deal with the problems facing the state. The resources needed to address the issues at hand should be available. We have given our citizens advice on a wide range of topics, most notably how to understand the candidate they are voting for and his policies for the state. You have to be certain that the candidate you are supporting will make our lives better. It should be his or her experience.

Regarding the phenomenon of vote-buying, Ajibulu continued, “Almost everyone is against vote-buying. We are advising the candidates to persuade the voters of their intentions rather than plotting to purchase votes. Voters shouldn’t risk their future because things haven’t worked out well in the past when they’ve collected money to cast their ballots. There shouldn’t be any sentimental or financial motive.

“We want someone who has developmental plans,” stated Toba Fatunla, Speaker of the Ekiti Youth Parliament. Someone who can connect with the public and young people and eventually alter the perception of our state is what we need. We want a successful Ekiti, not a state that would regress when other states in the nation are prospering and moving forward.

“Anyone who takes money on June 18 in order to vote is merely mortgaging their future because the money they donate cannot be used for four years; they are also taking money away from development.” Ekiti does not desire better administration or prosperous Ekiti, and whomever takes money does not like Ekiti. For the sake of Ekiti’s development, our people must set aside their desire for instant fulfillment.

The Ekiti election, according to observer Muyiwa Obayanju, should not be about the parties but rather about the candidate with the necessary expertise to alter the narrative in the areas of infrastructure, economic development, health, education, and other state governance sectors. “The next election should be based on the person who can deliver the real dividends of democracy to the people of Ekiti; not the ones they are talking about in campaigns,” stated Obayanju, rather than the political platforms. There are undoubtedly problems in the state, and the populace cannot afford to pass up this crucial chance to improve conditions there. Based on the current state of affairs in the nation, we require a leader who can unite the populace and inspire faith in the government. Nobody will be able to use the N5,000 that they will be giving out on election day. On June 18, Ekiti people should cast their votes for someone who can complete the task, not for politicians who want to pay off their conscience. Don’t take anything they give you; they can’t make you pick it up. Those who make financial offers are not interested in you. Our politicians no longer even reveal their manifestos prior to the election, unlike during the Obafemi Awolowo era when they ran on only those platforms and were elected.