Nigeria’s aviation sector is facing mounting pressure as the price of aviation fuel, Jet A1, has surged by more than 100 per cent—raising concerns over imminent increases in airfares.

Industry checks indicate that the cost of Jet A1, which previously sold between ₦900 and ₦995 per litre, has skyrocketed to between ₦2,500 and ₦2,700 across major airports, significantly driving up airline operating expenses.

Middle East Crisis Drives Cost Spike

The sharp increase is largely attributed to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted crude oil production and global supply chains, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel.

The volatility has left airlines grappling with rapidly changing fuel costs, with prices reportedly fluctuating multiple times since late February.

Airlines Struggle to Stay Afloat

Operators say aviation fuel—already the largest component of airline costs—has become even more dominant, now accounting for up to 45 per cent of total operating expenses.

Despite the spike, many domestic airlines have maintained average ticket prices at around ₦195,000, a situation industry players warn is unsustainable.

Spokesperson for United Nigeria Airlines, Chibuike Uloka, called on the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) to engage operators on the realities of rising costs.

He dismissed allegations of price fixing and stressed that airlines are currently operating under severe financial strain.

Threat of Higher Fares, Reduced Capacity

Aviation experts warn that if Jet A1 prices approach ₦3,000 per litre, some airlines may be forced to cut operations or exit certain routes altogether.

This could reduce available capacity and further push up ticket prices for passengers.

Industry analyst Samuel Caulcrick projected that airfares could rise by 20 to 25 per cent in the near term as operators adjust to the new cost realities.

Broader Economic Impact

The situation is compounded by Nigeria’s crude oil supply challenges, which have forced refiners like the Dangote facility to rely on imported crude—further exposing the sector to global price shocks.

With aviation now considered essential for business and mobility, stakeholders warn that sustained fuel price increases will inevitably be passed on to passengers.

Outlook

As fuel costs continue to climb, airlines are left with little choice but to review pricing structures, signalling tougher times ahead for travellers and the aviation industry alike.

The coming weeks are expected to be critical as operators balance survival with maintaining service levels in a volatile global energy environment.