When Bola Tinubu waved the green flag for a 15 % ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel, Nigeria’s downstream oil sector did a double-take.

The decision — made official on October 21, 2025 — isn’t just another policy note. It’s a strategic shot across the bow of import dependence, and you, yes you, the average Nigerian, should know exactly what’s happening, why it matters, and how it could affect your daily life.

What Exactly Did Tinubu Approve?

In his directive, Tinubu ordered the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to start enforcing a 15 % import duty on the cost, insurance and freight (CIF) value of imported petrol and diesel.

Here are the main components:

* The duty is on imported fuel (petrol and diesel), not just one.
* It is described as “market-responsive”, signalling the government wants to tie things more closely to real costs and stop imports from undercutting local refining.
* A memo from FIRS chairman Zacch Adedeji explained that the aim is to encourage local production, reduce import dependence and create a level playing field for local refiners.
* The letter projects that the landed cost of petrol could go up by around ₦99.72 per litre under this duty, at current CIF levels.
* The policy is framed as supporting the “Renewed Hope Agenda” for energy security and economic stability.

So, yes: imported fuel just got more expensive — intentionally.

Why Now?

Picture this: Nigeria is swimming in oil, yet many of our refineries are either idle or under-performing.

Imported fuel still meets about 67% of the country’s total consumption.
If you were a local refiner, you might be thinking: “Why am I refining at home when importers come in duty-free and undercut me?” That’s the crux.

According to the memo, domestic refiners struggle because “import parity pricing” often falls below what it costs them to produce when you factor in foreign-exchange, freight and other hidden costs.
In plainer language: you buy crude, refine it, pay all the bills—and can’t compete with someone bringing fuel in cheaply from abroad.

The government’s response: impose a tariff so that imported fuel isn’t always the cheaper shortcut. The hope: give local players room to breathe, attract investment into refining capacity, and stabilise supply.

And there’s more: by increasing costs on imported product, the government is signalling a shift towards “local currency” in transactions, strengthening local refining capacity and mitigating foreign-exchange exposure.

It’s a pivot. A “level the field” move. A story of “local industry vs cheap imports”.

What Does This Mean For You, The Nigerian consumer?

Here’s where the rubber meets the road — or the fuel nozzle meets the tank.

Potential Positives

* Over time, stronger local refining may mean more stable fuel supply, fewer queues, fewer stories of “fuel scarcity” (fingers crossed).
* Encouraging local industry could boost jobs, investment and domestic capacity — good for the economy.
* Reducing import dependence means less vulnerability to global shocks (fuel prices, freight costs, exchange-rate swings).

Potential Risks

* The projected increase of ₦99.72 per litre (based on current CIF) is substantial. It means the landed cost of petrol in Lagos could creep towards ₦964.72 per litre in the projection.
* If refiners don’t ramp up capacity quickly, you might still be buying expensive imported fuel — so higher cost without the local benefit.
* Inflationary pressures: fuel is a key input. Transport costs go up → food & goods cost up → strain on households.
* If the policy isn’t managed well, there’s a risk of supply bottlenecks, or unscrupulous importers finding new ways around duties.

What To Keep An Eye On

* Monitor actual fuel pump prices across the country — how quickly does this duty translate to what you pay at the station?
* Watch local refining output. Are the local refineries (including modular ones in Edo, Rivers, Imo) scaling up?
* Exchange rate and freight costs — these remain external variables that can still disrupt the “fair pricing” aim.
* Government enforcement: if imports find loopholes (smuggling, mis-declared CIF values), the tariff loses its punch.

Why This Really Matters (and not just for those at the pump)

This is more than “fuel got costlier” news. It’s about economic sovereignty, industrialisation and systemic reform.

Nigeria has long imported the fuel it refines locally, turning a rich-oil country into a dependent importer.

By imposing the duty, the government is saying: Let’s strengthen what we make here. It’s a message to investors, refiners and the global market: “We want domestic capacity, we’ll protect it, and we’ll pull back from just importing.” If successful, that could reshape Nigeria’s energy value chain, employment opportunities, regional export potential—not just consumption.

Also Read: Tim Godfrey Responds to Backlash Over Collaboration with Oxlade

And yes — if local refining grows, Nigeria could become a net exporter of finished petroleum products (rather than just exporting crude and importing fuel). Big mindset shift.

What Every Nigerian Should Remember

* The 15 % import duty is not a tax on YOU directly from day one — it’s on the import value of petrol/diesel. But yes, you will likely feel it at the pump.
* Think of it as a strategic investment: the goal is more local refining, less import dependency, more stability — though the outcome depends heavily on execution.
* Keep watching the downstream sector: local refining output, pump prices, supply consistency.
* A policy like this can be a pivot point — if done right, Nigeria could move from “import-cost country” to “refining-player country”.
* Meanwhile, personally: budget for potential increases, stay alert for supply issues or price volatility, and ask questions when fuel prices jump: is it just global cost, or is this new duty showing up?