When the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.23% in Q2 2025, there was applause in government circles. Headlines quickly praised a rebound: oil output returning, industries waking up, services holding steady. But in a country where many still can’t afford three square meals, where power is unreliable, where roads betray ambitions, does a percentage number for GDP growth really mean life is better on the ground?
This growth is the fastest in four years. But the real questions are: Who sees this growth? Does it translate to improved healthcare, reduced poverty, better jobs, or stable inflation? Because without those, the numbers risk becoming just another statistic — nice for press releases, shallow for people whose daily lives haven’t budged.
As Nigeria watches its GDP climb, it needs to dig deeper: behind the growth, beyond the oil, through the non-oil sector. Because true development isn’t something you measure in percentages alone — it’s what those numbers let you eat, access, and sleep on.
The Good & The Caveats — What This Growth Means & Does Not Mean
The Upside — Where Nigeria Seems to Be Getting It Right
1. Rebasing of GDP providing better accuracy
Using 2019 as the base year (instead of 2010) means newer economic activities (digital, etc.) are better captured. This gives a more realistic growth picture.
2. Oil rebound helping to plug holes
After periods of oil production disruption, the increase in output is contributing massively to revenue, foreign inflows, and investor confidence.
3. Non-oil growth suggests diversified strength
Industries, agriculture, telecoms, trade, and real estate are pulling weight. That’s good, as oil alone can’t sustain long-term development.
4. Nominal GDP growth strong
Nominal GDP is up 19.23% YoY, indicating inflation adjustments and price effects, too.
Is Nigeria Growing Or Just Catching Up?
This headline growth may be less of a leap and more of a catch-up. For years, inflation, under-investment, weak base years, data gaps, and policy volatility dragged Nigeria’s numbers down or masked actual performance.
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Now, with rebasing and strong oil, the country seems to be pulling out. But that doesn’t erase decades of neglect in infrastructure, education, and social welfare.
What if this spike is temporary? What if oil prices fall again, or supply chain issues, FX crises, insecurity worsen? Then 4.23% may feel like a sweet memory, not a foundation.
