Nigeria stands at a pivotal crossroads. For decades, oil revenues have dominated the country’s economic narrative, but the tides are shifting. With diminishing global reliance on fossil fuels and a fluctuating oil market, the urgency to diversify has never been clearer. Encouragingly, recent data and government action suggest that agriculture—long overshadowed by crude oil—may finally be returning to its rightful place as the bedrock of Nigeria’s economy.

A Glimpse at the 2024 Economic Landscape

In 2024, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) posted an overall growth rate of 3.40 percent. While the oil sector contributed 4.60 percent to real GDP in Q4 and recorded a 5.54 percent annual growth rate, its relevance is steadily being eclipsed by the non-oil sector. Agriculture played a significant role in this shift, contributing 24.64 percent to real GDP in Q4 2024 and accounting for 20.97 percent of the year’s nominal GDP.

However, despite its size, agriculture’s growth was modest—ranging from 1.2 percent to 1.76 percent across the quarters. Nonetheless, the sector’s contribution to the non-oil economy (which accounted for a whopping 95.40 percent of real GDP in Q4) illustrates a fundamental change in the drivers of national economic output.

From Cocoa to Crude: A Historical Shift

Agriculture was once Nigeria’s crown jewel. Before the 1970s oil boom, it contributed over 60 percent to GDP and employed nearly three-quarters of the population. The country thrived on exports of cocoa, palm oil, groundnuts, and rubber. These cash crops not only drove foreign exchange earnings but also funded education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

However, with the discovery of oil, Nigeria diverted its focus. Agriculture declined into a state of neglect, and the once-thriving rural economy withered under the weight of petrodollar dependency. Today, the effects of that historic shift are evident in Nigeria’s import-dependent food economy, high unemployment, and the persistent challenge of rural poverty.

President Tinubu’s Agricultural Reforms

Determined to reverse the trend, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency on food security just weeks into office in July 2023. This marked a renewed commitment to revitalising agriculture. Among the key initiatives introduced were:

• Immediate release of fertilisers and grains from national reserves to boost farming output.

• Strategic alignment between the Ministries of Agriculture and Water Resources to promote all-season irrigation farming.

• Establishment of a National Commodity Board, aimed at stabilising food prices and managing food stockpiles.

One of the administration’s flagship programmes, the Agro-Pocket Initiative, targets 750,000 hectares for the cultivation of staple crops such as maize, rice, wheat, and cassava. Farmers receive input vouchers and tailored support, helping them to improve yield and sustainability.

To counter food inflation, the government implemented a 150-day suspension of import duties and tariffs on essential food items, alongside easing the importation of maize and wheat for small-scale processors.

In terms of extension services, a new National Agricultural Extension Policy was unveiled. This reform seeks to modernise support for farmers, shifting from outdated extension methods to ICT-driven, market-oriented solutions that can offer real-time guidance and market access.

Banditry and Insecurity: The Greatest Threat to Growth

Despite these reforms, insecurity looms large. Violent attacks, kidnappings, and extortion—especially in food-producing regions—have become the single most devastating threat to Nigeria’s agricultural revival. Farmers now live in fear, with many abandoning their lands altogether.

The Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development has underscored this crisis in its report, “No Farmer, No Food”, linking farmer-targeted violence directly to the country’s worsening hunger index. The Tinubu administration recognises this challenge. National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu has reaffirmed the government’s intent to return displaced farmers to their communities.

However, Ribadu has also stressed that kinetic (military) responses alone are insufficient. Addressing the root causes of conflict—poverty, land disputes, lack of education, and economic exclusion—requires a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. Proposals like the establishment of forest guards represent a creative and community-based effort to boost rural security.

Systemic Hurdles and Structural Challenges

Even beyond security, Nigeria’s agricultural sector faces daunting challenges:

• Limited access to credit: Many farmers rely on informal lenders, often facing exorbitant interest rates that undermine profitability.

• High cost of production: The removal of fuel subsidies has raised the cost of inputs and transportation.

• Poor infrastructure: Inadequate rural roads, storage facilities, and irrigation systems contribute to massive post-harvest losses.

• Climate change: Erratic rainfall, desertification, and flooding continue to wreak havoc on yields and disrupt seasonal farming patterns.

Towards a Sustainable, Tech-Driven Agricultural Economy

Despite these challenges, the potential for agriculture to catalyse Nigeria’s economic transformation remains immense. But this depends on bold, strategic moves, including:

• Value addition through agro-processing, which can significantly increase income and reduce post-harvest losses.

• Adoption of precision agriculture using satellite imagery, data analytics, and smart irrigation systems to optimise yields.

• Diversification of crop production beyond traditional staples to include high-demand exports like soybeans, sesame, ginger, and vegetables.

• Expansion of livestock and aquaculture to ensure year-round protein availability and export potential.

• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) that can infuse capital, technology, and market access into farming communities.

Additionally, improving rural education, investing in youth-oriented agri-tech startups, and making finance truly accessible through digital platforms can create a new generation of tech-savvy farmers ready to lead the sector into the future.

Conclusion: Farming the Future

Nigeria’s journey away from oil dependency will be long and fraught with challenges. Yet, agriculture remains the most promising—and realistic—path forward. President Tinubu’s reform agenda indicates a genuine intent to make this vision a reality. But intent must be matched by results, particularly in the realm of rural security.

Until farmers can safely return to their lands, till their soil without fear, and bring their harvest to market, the dream of an agriculturally-led Nigerian renaissance will remain just that—a dream. Real change will require enduring political will, robust policy continuity, and, above all, a secure environment in which agriculture can thrive.

Nigeria holds in its soil not only the seeds of food but also the seeds of a diversified, resilient, and inclusive economic future. Whether or not they bear fruit depends on the choices made today.