As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the nation’s political terrain is once again undergoing a familiar transformation. The season of coalitions, alliances, defections, and realignments is in full swing, driven by individual ambitions, group interests, and regional considerations. These manoeuvres may significantly shape—or destabilize—the political and economic future of Nigeria.
The current wave of political reshuffling reflects both opportunism and desperation. Politicians, their loyalists, and power brokers are engaged in a fierce battle to position themselves for relevance, access, and control ahead of what many describe as the “magical” 2027. The stakes are high, and so are the risks.
Historical Echoes: Nigeria’s Long History of Political Realignments
Coalition-building is hardly a novel concept in Nigerian politics. It is embedded in the nation’s political DNA. As far back as 1952, politicians believed to be aligned with the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) joined forces with the Ibadan People’s Party and independents to form the Action Group under Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s leadership. Similarly, in 1953, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe strategically moved to Eastern Nigeria, orchestrated a by-election victory, and displaced Eyo Ita to assume leadership.
By 1965, the Northern Peoples’ Congress and the Nigerian National Democratic Party had formed the Nigerian National Alliance to counter the United Progressive Grand Alliance—another historic instance of strategic coalitions aimed at electoral dominance.
Globally, coalition politics isn’t peculiar to Nigeria. In 2012, for instance, then British Prime Minister David Cameron led a coalition government comprising the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats. Such political partnerships—often born of necessity—are common in multiparty democracies.
North-South Tensions and the 2027 Power Play
Despite the consensus that produced a Southern presidency in 2023, Northern politicians have already begun clamouring for the presidency’s return to their region. What is more troubling is the collaboration between some southern politicians and their northern counterparts to dislodge President Bola Tinubu, a southerner, before he completes a second term.
At the same time, southern politicians determined to retain the presidency are regrouping, with signals reminiscent of the historic 2013 merger that birthed the All Progressives Congress (APC). Chief among them is Nyesom Wike, the former PDP governor and current FCT Minister under the APC administration, who derided some of the newly formed coalitions as “born and died the same day”—a blunt dismissal of their relevance.
President Tinubu, not one to shy away from provocation, poured salt into the opposition’s wounds when he mocked their disarray, stating, “It is, indeed, a pleasure to witness you in such disarray.” However, his biting remarks serve a dual purpose: on one hand, celebrating the APC’s perceived dominance; on the other, possibly provoking the opposition to regroup and re-strategize.
Constitutional Freedom or Political Convenience?
Tinubu defended the wave of defections to the APC, stating that “we cannot blame anybody seeking to bail out of a sinking ship.” He anchored his argument on Section 40 of the 1999 Constitution, which grants Nigerians the right to freely associate and join political parties of their choice. He assured citizens that Nigeria would not become a one-party state, citing “a greater power” that would prevent such a descent.
Nonetheless, critics argue that Tinubu’s actions contradict his assurances. The steady influx of governors and lawmakers from the opposition into the ruling party appears more like political cannibalism than democratic openness. The recent crossovers by governors Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State and Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom—along with numerous legislators—amplify these fears.
Skeptics contend that these defections are less about ideology and more about securing access to power, protection from prosecution, or a share of the nation’s spoils. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) looms large over many of these moves, fueling public suspicion.
Ethics, Ideology, and the Hollow Core of Nigerian Politics
At the root of the chaos lies the fundamental problem with Nigeria’s democratic framework: the absence of ideology. The Constitution and Electoral Act are silent on political philosophy or manifestos as prerequisites for forming or joining parties. Section 84(1) of the Electoral Act permits two or more political parties to merge, but does not demand ideological compatibility. Similarly, Section 224 of the Constitution suggests that parties should align with Chapter II (Fundamental Objectives and Directive Principles of State Policy), but offers no mechanism for enforcement.
Worse still, Section 6(6)(c) of the Constitution prevents courts from compelling compliance with Chapter II. This legal gap allows parties to operate like marketplaces where politicians buy, sell, and trade influence with no obligation to uphold any set of guiding principles.
This vacuum reduces democracy to a game of numbers, where winning is the only ideology. Political loyalty is fleeting, and parties function more like business ventures than platforms for national transformation.
Defections, Opportunism, and the Zero-Sum Game
The current political landscape reflects a zero-sum game: those excluded from the spoils of power exit the ruling party in frustration, while those seeking benefits find their way in. For many politicians, it’s not about service but survival.
Indeed, as long as Section 40 of the Constitution permits freedom of association and other electoral provisions do not criminalize party switching, politicians will continue to exploit these loopholes to suit their interests. To purists, this may appear unethical, but to the players involved, it is simply part of the game.
Even renowned thinkers like Karl Marx acknowledged that political systems often serve the elite. In Nigeria, political parties are largely vessels for elite interests, cleverly disguised as public service platforms.
A Caution for the Masses: Don’t Fall in Love with Politicians
The most dangerous consequence of this political theater is the manipulation of public perception. Many ordinary Nigerians are drawn into emotional loyalty for political actors who are ultimately focused on power, not the people. As one wise observer cautioned, democracy demands that citizens never fall in love with politicians.
Politicians seek victory at all costs. Whether they are defecting, forming coalitions, or consolidating power, their actions are rarely driven by public interest. Those who blindly support these moves risk becoming pawns in a game where the rules are undefined, and the outcomes are dictated by personal ambition.
Conclusion: Democracy Without Rules Is Democracy in Name Only
The fluidity of Nigeria’s political alignments in the lead-up to 2027 highlights a profound truth: Nigeria operates a democracy without a firm foundation. In this system, loyalty is for sale, ideology is optional, and ethics are negotiable. Politicians move not based on principle, but on the promise of personal gain.
Until Nigeria reforms its legal and political systems to enforce ideology, accountability, and genuine democratic competition, the country will remain trapped in a cycle of alliances and betrayals, where the people are perpetual spectators.
Citizens must wake up. Coalitions may come and go. Politicians may switch sides. But the true power lies in the hands of the electorate—if only they would recognize it, and use it wisely.
