As the global cocoa market experiences a historic surge in prices, Nigeria—the most populous country in Africa—is intensifying efforts to reposition itself as a leading player in the global cocoa trade. On the New York Commodity Exchange, cocoa prices recently soared to $9,187 per metric ton, a sharp increase that reflects escalating global demand and supply chain disruptions in top-producing countries. For Nigeria, this spike offers both a challenge and a golden opportunity to reduce its dependence on oil and diversify its economic base through agricultural exports.

Nigeria Pushes to Expand Cocoa Output Amid Soaring Global Demand

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) ranked Nigeria as the seventh-largest cocoa producer in 2023, with over 280,000 metric tons of cocoa beans harvested. However, the federal government has laid out plans to nearly double this figure to 500,000 tons by the 2024–2025 cocoa season. If successful, this would place Nigeria closer to the ranks of cocoa-producing giants like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Indonesia.

This ambitious expansion drive is motivated by the rising value of cocoa globally. Two of the world’s top producers, Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for about 50% of global cocoa output, have reported declining yields due to disease outbreaks and erratic weather patterns. These setbacks have created a significant gap in supply, pushing prices well beyond historical norms.

According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), prices climbed from an average of $2,200–$2,500 per ton in 2022 to as high as $11,000 per ton by December 2024. At one point during the year, futures contracts on the New York market spiked close to $13,000 per ton—an all-time high that reflects the fragile state of supply chains in West Africa.

Though prices have recently eased due to projections of a modest global surplus, the commodity still trades at a significant premium, attracting investors and exporting nations eager to benefit from the price upswing.

Strategic Partnerships and Investment Fuel Cocoa Processing Capacity

To scale up Nigeria’s production and export readiness, British International Investment (BII) has partnered with local manufacturing firm Johnvents Group to inject $40.5 million into the cocoa value chain. This funding will be directed at Premium Cocoa Products Ile-Oluji, a Johnvents subsidiary, to expand its processing capacity from 13,000 metric tons per year to 30,000 metric tons.

This investment marks a major milestone in Nigeria’s journey to move beyond raw cocoa exports and increase domestic value addition. With more local processing plants, Nigeria stands to earn greater foreign exchange, reduce post-harvest losses, and create thousands of jobs across the cocoa-producing regions of Ondo, Cross River, Ekiti, Osun, and Ogun states.

Moreover, increased processing capacity could position Nigeria as a more competitive player in the global supply chain for cocoa derivatives such as cocoa butter, powder, and liquor—products widely used by confectionery and food manufacturers worldwide.

Government Moves to Establish National Cocoa Management Board

Recognizing the need for better oversight and coordination in the cocoa sector, Nigeria’s federal government has proposed legislation to create a National Cocoa Management Board. The bill, now under review by the National Assembly, outlines a regulatory framework that would centralize the production, processing, and marketing of cocoa.

According to Agriculture and Food Security Minister, Senator Abubakar Kyari, the board would mirror the successful models used by Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. These countries operate centralized cocoa boards that regulate pricing, enforce quality standards, and oversee farmer support schemes. Such systems have historically helped stabilize their cocoa economies while giving them stronger bargaining power in international markets.

Before drafting the bill, the Ministry of Agriculture established a Cocoa Management Committee to assess the viability of the board and identify operational gaps in the current supply chain. Delegations also held bilateral meetings with their counterparts in Ghana and Ivory Coast to learn from their cocoa governance systems and explore regional collaboration.

Action Plan for Sustainable Cocoa Growth Approved

In a bid to modernize and scale the cocoa industry, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved a comprehensive cocoa action plan in 2024. This roadmap outlines strategies for achieving long-term, sustainable growth with a projected investment exceeding $300 billion over the next ten years.

The plan targets several priority areas, including farmer education, seedling distribution, research on disease-resistant cocoa varieties, and expansion of rural infrastructure such as roads and storage facilities. Additionally, it encourages private sector partnerships and promotes youth participation in agriculture to address the aging farmer population in the cocoa belt.

The plan also seeks to expand farmer cooperatives and increase membership in associations like the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN), which reported over 10,000 active members during the 2023–2024 season. Empowering smallholder farmers with better financing, training, and access to markets forms a central part of the government’s strategy to scale cocoa output without compromising quality.

Global Demand for Cocoa Derivatives Remains Elevated

While supply issues dominate headlines, global demand for cocoa-based products continues to grow. Nestlé USA, the American subsidiary of the world’s largest food company, recently announced that it will raise prices on a range of cocoa-containing items—including its Toll House chocolate chips, baking cocoa, and fudge kits—starting from June 23.

This price adjustment comes on the heels of tension between Nestlé and its raw material suppliers. According to industry sources, Nestlé had urged several suppliers at the end of 2024 to reduce prices, provide rebates, or cancel existing contracts altogether in response to surging commodity costs. However, many suppliers reportedly rejected these demands, forcing the company to pass costs onto end consumers.

Despite a general cooling of grocery inflation in recent months, the chocolate and snack category continues to buck the trend. Limited cocoa supply, coupled with strong consumer appetite for comfort foods, has created a situation where companies can raise prices without seeing significant drops in demand.

Nigeria’s Cocoa Drive Holds Promise but Faces Challenges

Nigeria’s renewed focus on cocoa has enormous potential to reshape the nation’s export portfolio and support rural livelihoods. By expanding local processing, creating a national regulatory board, and encouraging sustainable farming practices, the country could gradually reduce its overdependence on crude oil revenues.

However, challenges persist. Climate change, inadequate infrastructure, limited access to finance, and inconsistent policy enforcement have long hampered agricultural growth. For the cocoa sector to thrive, Nigeria will need to ensure transparency, invest in research and extension services, and support young farmers in adopting climate-smart agricultural practices.

Still, if the country follows through on its ambitious production targets and regulatory reforms, it could play a more prominent role in the global cocoa trade within the next three years—bringing not just export revenue, but also economic resilience to millions of households that depend on farming.